Super El Niño could help quiet hurricane season but Louisiana still faces risk
Forecasters say strong El Niño conditions could limit storm development, but history shows it only takes one hurricane
BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - El Niño could play a major role in the hurricane season, but forecasters warn Louisiana residents should not change the way they prepare.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops over the Pacific Ocean, not the Atlantic. It involves warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
That warming can increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which can tear storms apart and make it harder for hurricanes to form or strengthen.
El Niño also changes weather patterns around the world. In some parts of the United States, it can lead to drier conditions or drought. Across the South and the Gulf Coast, it can bring more moisture and rain, raising concerns about flooding along the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines.
It can also affect surface temperatures, often leading to a slightly cooler summer across the South.
Forecasters say this year’s El Niño could help lead to a quieter hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook calls for a below-normal season with fewer named storms and hurricanes.
Still, forecasters warn that it only takes one storm to create major problems in Louisiana.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, of Colorado State University, noted that several past El Niño years have still produced hurricanes that impacted Louisiana and the Gulf Coast, including Hurricane Audrey in 1957 and Hurricane Betsy in 1965.
Over the last 30 years of El Niño patterns, only a handful of named storms have impacted any part of the Gulf Coast. However, several of those storms were strong hurricanes.
The last El Niño hurricane season was in 2015. The Gulf was quiet that year, with only one named storm, Tropical Storm Bill.
This year’s pattern is being described by some as a “Super El Niño.”
Matthew Rosencrans, lead forecaster for the National Hurricane Center, said a Super El Niño typically happens when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are running about 2 degrees above normal.
Rosencrans said that is close to where he expects conditions to be, with high confidence that a strong El Niño will develop.
However, forecasters say Louisiana residents should prepare the same way every year, no matter what the seasonal outlook says.
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