Why the Atlantic is quiet at the peak of hurricane season 2025
Dry air, strong winds and high shear are limiting storm development even as the season reaches its climatological peak.
NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - The climatological peak of hurricane season falls on September 10th.
This is when environmental conditions are typically the most favorable for tropical cyclone development.
This year, however, there is nothing to track out in the Atlantic as the peak of the season rolls around this week.
Several factors may contribute to the unusual lull in activity.
Since the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season in June, storms have struggled to form in the basin aside from Hurricane Erin, which reached Category 5 strength.
The presence of dry and stable air has reduced vertical instability, which is necessary to allow thunderstorms to form the seeds of tropical systems.
The trade winds have also been stronger than normal, according to a Colorado State University discussion, leading to an increase in wind shear.
Wind shear hinders the development of tropical cyclones as it tears them apart and doesn’t allow them to become vertically stacked.
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There has also been a persistent upper-level trough over the eastern United States as cold fronts have been moving south, creating high wind shear over the Gulf and Caribbean as well as transporting dry air from the subtropics to the tropics.
The high pressure in the upper levels over the central Atlantic, therefore, has been positioned farther east, leading to the northly tracks of the storms that have formed primarily out to sea.
According to CSU, the waves that move off the coast of Africa have been hindered by sinking air over the region.
This is weakening the waves that then have to battle unfavorable environmental conditions farther into the tropical Atlantic.
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The extended forecast looks to stay quiet as these conditions persist through mid-September, but after this period, wind shear could decrease, allowing for a more favorable environment.
Sea surface temperatures are also anomalously warm across the Gulf and western Caribbean. As the wind shear decreases over the western Atlantic, we will have to monitor for threats closer to home.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had a similar lull in activity until the peak of hurricane season, but had hyperactivity in the latter half.
It is important to have hurricane preparations and plans in place as activity could ramp up over the next few weeks.
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