Tropical wave given high chance to become Tropical Storm
System could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle later this week
NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - A tropical wave moving west of the Cabo Verde Islands is showing signs of organization and has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the wave was producing widespread thunderstorm activity but lacked a defined surface circulation. Forecasters say gradual development is possible as it continues to move west or northwest across the Atlantic.
Ensemble forecast models show different potential tracks. Some steer the system north of the Caribbean if it strengthens quickly, while others keep it farther south and possibly toward the Lesser Antilles if it remains weaker.
The outcome depends on how quickly the system organizes and how upper-level steering currents evolve.
A persistent high-pressure system over the central Atlantic may guide a stronger storm northward, while weaker systems could continue farther west.
The NHC gives the disturbance a 30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance within seven days. If named, the storm would take the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane list: Gabrielle.
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