What’s holding back the Atlantic? Analyzing slow start to ‘hyperactive’ hurricane season

NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - As the peak of the 2024 hurricane season progresses, forecasters are noting a discrepancy between early forecasts and actual storm activity.

While initial predictions warned of an above-normal, potentially hyperactive season, the reality has been closer to average.

To date, we’ve had five named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane. That is close to normal for this point of the season, so it certainly hasn’t been hyperactive. Another metric hurricane seasons are measured in is ACE, accumulated cyclone energy. Those numbers are running higher than they should at this time of year mainly because of Cat 5 Hurricane Beryl in July.

The big question as of late is what’s missing in the Atlantic Basin right now? It’s Labor Day weekend and we’re not tracking any named storm or hurricane. That’s rare.

The details are in the science and understanding that science is the tough part.

Most hurricanes or tropical storms start as seeds in Africa. Those seeds are known as tropical waves riding the African monsoon. This year, the monsoon or train of waves in Africa is displaced north of where it usually is. When the waves are farther north, they come off the coast of Africa north of the warm water and run right into a cool ocean current known as the Canary Current.

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A second piece to the puzzle in the tropics is how warm the water temperatures are nearly everywhere.

Storms form in the tropical Atlantic which is where the big hurricanes get their fuel from but it takes the entire basin system working together to get those hurricanes to develop. Right now, above-normal water temperatures fill nearly the entire North Atlantic Ocean. Too much of one thing can be a deterrent for tropical formation.

More: Tropical depression or storm could form as NHC monitors two systems in the Atlantic

This large amount of heat in the atmosphere may be causing stability issues. Hurricanes rely on instability to form thunderstorms. Contrasting temperatures is how you create that instability but when everything is warm, you lack the temperature difference to generate thunderstorms and create tropical formation.

All the quiet season talk is definitely premature as multiple weeks remain in peak season. It only takes one bad storm forming at the wrong time to make any hurricane season the worst.

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