FIRST ALERT: Tropical moisture could lead to heat and drought relief

(KSLA) - Relief from the heat and much-needed rain could arrive late this weekend or early next week as tropical moisture increases.

On Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center highlighted a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Right now, the potential for development is low. The chance of formation over the next 48 hours is 10 percent. The chance of formation over the next 5 days is low as well, 20 percent. This system will likely not become a named storm.

This system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days.

By the end of the week or early this weekend, this system will likely be in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Even though there is still some uncertainty regarding how this system is going to evolve, it will still likely bring heavy rain to the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts.

As tropical moisture continues to increase and this system gets closer to the ArkLaTex late this weekend through early next week, our rain chances will begin to increase.

On Sunday, the heaviest rain will likely stay south of the ArkLaTex. However, showers and storms will begin to lift further north across the area. The best chance of rain on Sunday will likely be across the I-20 and points south. If you have outdoor plans with dad on Sunday for Father's Day, now is the time come up with a backup plan just in case you get washed out.

The much-needed rain and clouds will continue to bring heat and drought relief early next week. Right now, showers and storms are likely on Monday. With the clouds and rain around, temperatures will not be able to soar into the 90s.

It's still a little too early to pinpoint exactly how much rain is going to fall over the ArkLaTex. However, this system could definitely put a dent in the drought and could erase it in some spots.

The latest run of FutureTrack shows widespread rainfall totals between 1.0"-2.0" of rain. A few spots could see close to 3". The heaviest rain will likely fall south of I-20. Keep in mind, these numbers will likely change some over the next several days.

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