First Alert: Tracking a disturbance in the Tropics

First Alert: Tracking a disturbance in the Tropics

(KSLA) - All eyes are on a disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Strong winds and dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere will prevent this system from organizing over the next couple of days.

The chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours is near 0 percent.

However, development will be possible later this week as the system moves northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. The chance of tropical development in the next 5 days is 40 percent.

Until this system actually develops, the weather models will struggle with its exact track.

The European Model has it onshore near New Orleans by Saturday night and has it moving northward just east of the Mississippi River. If this solution is correct, this system could bring in a good chance of rain this weekend for parts of Northwest Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas.

The American Model keeps this system further east. The American Model shows this system having a much bigger impact on Florida.

The bottom line is an area of low pressure may form and approach somewhere along the Gulf Coast this weekend. This system could bring rain to ArkLaTex, but it also might not.

The StormTracker 12 Weather Team will continue to monitor this system over the next several days, so make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast.

The StormTracker 12 Weather Team makes it easy for you to stay up to date with the latest forecast:

The rest of the work week is going to be hot and humid. Highs will be near 90 degrees or just above 90 degrees through next week.

With all the heat and humidity around, summer-like pop-up showers and storms will be possible each afternoon. Even though there will be a chance of showers and storms each day not everyone will see rain each day.

These showers and storms will pop up in the heat of the day and dissipate as temperatures cool off during the evening and overnight.

The threat of severe weather with these types of storms is always low. However, a strong storm capable of producing heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds can't be ruled out.

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