Another above average Hurricane Season forecast for 2022
SHREVEPORT, La. (KSLA) - Meteorologists from Colorado State University are forecasting what would be the seventh consecutive year with above average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. They are forecasting the 2022 Hurricane Season to have above average named storms, hurricanes, as well as major hurricanes.
There are three major reasons that an above average season is expected for the Atlantic Basin. First is the current weak La Nina in the Eastern Pacific, which means cooler than average sea surface in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. A weak La Nina during hurricane season tends to lead to more rising air in the tropical Atlantic compared to average with more tropical development likely to go along with that rising air. Also sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and the subtropical Atlantic are above average which can correlate to above average tropical activity. Finally, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic are above average. According to Colorado State University that indicates we will see another season with above average tropical activity.
That would come on the heels on what has been back to back very active hurricane seasons, with the most active season in history being 2020 with 30 named storms , 14 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes. The past couple of years have been particularly devastating for Louisiana with Major Hurricanes Laura and Ida making landfall in 2020 and 2021 respectfully, and five total storms making landfall in the state in 2020, a record. In addition, researchers at CSU are predicting above average chances of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coast with the Louisiana having the second highest odds of seeing a landfalling major hurricane behind only Texas.
Please keep in the mind that this is only a forecast and the number of potential storms can and will change once we get into the season. Also while hurricane season starts June 1st for the past seven consecutive years we have had tropical development during the month of May, and there is discussion to have the season officially start sometime before the first of June. But hurricane season does not peak until late August through the month of September and that is also when Louisiana has seen the most intense hurricanes.
The official hurricane season forecast from NOAA will come out sometime in the middle of May, and will alert you when that does happen.
As we head into hurricane season later this spring and summer stay up to date on any tropical weather with the KSLA First Alert Weather Team. Here’s how you can stay First Alert to any tropical activity:
- Download the free KSLA First Alert Weather app to your smartphone
- Check the weather page at KSLA.com
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- Watch KSLA News 12 on television or on Roku and Amazon Fire TV
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