Tracking Tropical Storm Cristobal’s possible impacts on the ArkLaTex

Tracking Tropical Storm Cristobal’s possible impacts on the ArkLaTex
Cristobal pushes toward the ArkLaTex Monday (Source: KSLA)

Tropical Storm Cristobal (crease-toe-ball) made landfall along southern Mexico and central America on Wednesday, bringing life threatening rain to the area. As of the 10pm update the center of Cristobal remains inland and nearly stationary with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

10pm Wednesday evening Cristobal update
10pm Wednesday evening Cristobal update (Source: KSLA)

Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast to remain over land through Friday morning. It is forecast to weaken back to a depression, but emerge back into the gulf and regain Tropical Storm strength by Friday night/Saturday morning.

Cristobal weakens, but re-emerges over the Gulf Friday
Cristobal weakens, but re-emerges over the Gulf Friday (Source: KSLA)

Heading into the weekend, Tropical Storm Cristobal will begin its track northwards. It’ll be able to strengthen over warm gulf waters during the weekend as it gradually brings the tropical moisture north as well. Thankfully here in the ArkLaTex, so far Saturday is still looking mostly dry and sunny!

Cristobal strengthens as it moves through the Gulf
Cristobal strengthens as it moves through the Gulf (Source: KSLA)

A strong Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast near the Louisiana coast by Sunday evening, but the eventual track of the storm could take it as far west as Houston or as far east as Mobile, AL. Cristobal will likely weaken into a tropical depression as it moves inland.

Cristobal pushes toward the ArkLaTex Monday
Cristobal pushes toward the ArkLaTex Monday (Source: KSLA)

Impacts in the ArkLaTex will likely hold off until late Sunday evening and Monday morning. Landfall, potentially along the Louisiana coast, could happen sometime Sunday morning or evening. This will depend on future weather patterns this weekend. Keep in mind, the cone of uncertainty remains rather wide so the center could move anywhere within the cone.

Heavy rain possible by Monday evening
Heavy rain possible by Monday evening (Source: KSLA)

One of our more reliable computer model’s output shows that Cristobal could potentially move over the ArkLaTex on Monday. Very heavy rainfall and thunderstorms would be likely across northwest Louisiana, East Texas, and southwest Arkansas. By Tuesday, and upper level pattern will guide the storm eastward and away from the ArkLaTex.

2-4" of rain possible with Cristobal
2-4" of rain possible with Cristobal (Source: KSLA)

Potential rainfall amounts could total between 1-3 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts. Again, it’s important to remember that impacts will greatly depend on the track, which could change. Either way, we’ll keep you updated with what to expect and when as more information becomes available.

The KSLA First Alert Weather Team will always be watch the tropics and for any potential impacts on the ArkLaTe. Here’s how you can get the First Alert with the latest forecast:

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