SHREVEPORT, La. (KSLA) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season and an above average season is expected for the Atlantic Basin. Currently between 13 and 19 tropical storms (winds 39-73 MPH) are expected to form, with between 6 and 10 of these storms becoming hurricanes (winds 74-110 MPH), and between 3 and 6 of these hurricanes could become major hurricanes (winds over 111 MPH).
There are several factors that contributed to the expected above average season. First and foremost, above average ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea along with the tropical Atlantic will help aid tropical development as we go throughout the season. Secondly weaker expected wind shear during the season will allow more hurricanes to grow stronger than in a typical year. Finally the possible development of a weak La Niña typically leads to an above average hurricane season.
With the development of Tropical Storm Arthur earlier this week, it marked the sixth straight year where we have seen tropical development before the official start of hurricane season which is June 1st. If we do see an above average season this year it will also mark the 5th straight year of an above season, which would be an all-time record for consecutive above average seasons.
Hurricane season typically peaks during the late summer and into the early fall with the climatological peak occurring on September 10th. In terms of impacts here in the ArkLaTex usually the greatest concern from tropical weather tends to be the potential for flooding. So if you do live in a flood prone area make sure you have a plan in place now before a flooding could become a significant concern.
The KSLA First Alert Weather Team will always be watch the tropics and for any potential impacts on the ArkLaTe. Here’s how you can get the First Alert with the latest forecast: