Sunday morning throughout much of Sunday evening will stay quiet and warm, but our weather pattern begins to change heading into late Sunday past most people’s bed times. An approaching cold front late Sunday night into early Monday morning may bring strong to severe storms into the ArkLaTex. The above picture shows the latest Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for 7pm Sunday night until 7am Monday morning. A slight risk (level 2 out of 5) exists along I-30 and northward, with the slight risk expanding southward to include Upshur, Cass, and Bowie county in Texas. The Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) includes south of I-30 and north of I-20 in northwest Louisiana and down through east Texas.
Early Monday morning, as the line of showers and thunderstorms push southeast, the severe weather risk will shift as well. That is why a slight risk is in effect for much of northwest Louisiana parishes around 7am Monday morning. A Marginal risk will be in place for areas south of I-30 extending south of I-20 for deep east Texas counties.
With many of the ingredients in place for severe thunderstorms to develop such as fuel and energy from warm, moist air from the Gulf, a cold front, and strong upper level winds, all modes of severe weather are possible. Our primary threat so far will be for strong damaging winds gusts. Some areas could see gusts up to 60-70 mph. Lesser threats include a chance for an isolated tornado, large hail, and heavy rain that could lead to flooded areas.
Guidance from a several models suggest that strong to severe storms could arrive shortly after midnight. The first areas to be impacted will be along and north of I-30 with an estimated timing between midnight and 7am. The line should push south of the I-30 corridor and impact the Shreveport-Bossier area between 7am and late morning. As the showers and storms continue pushing southeast, they should be completely out of the ArkLaTex by early afternoon. Keep in mind, there is still plenty of time before this happens so timing and impact could certainly change, however, we’ll keep you updated along the way.
Because some of the worst weather could happen overnight, it’s important to make sure you have a way to get updates on any threats and stay weather aware. Also keep in mind the Monday morning commute may be a very wet and stormy one and one might need extra commute time. We’ll keep you updated with the following links below.
Be sure to follow the entire KSLA weather team on Facebook and Twitter for more updates. We will be sure to keep you up to date with any storms that head our way.