(KSLA) - This weekend will be the tale of two stories. Saturday will have great weather with abundant sunshine, while Sunday will have increasing clouds and strong storms arriving late Sunday night. Some of those storms could be severe.
A cold front will be pushing its way through the ArkLaTex Sunday night/early Monday morning. This will bring the heavy rain and strong storms. Reason for that is because we have all of this “energy” or “storm fuel” in the atmosphere. This is extra moisture and heat that can help cause storms to develop. Tie that with the cold front that will bring cooler temperatures behind it, more storms could develop. All we need to make it severe is some wind shear. That is, the wind changing speed and direction as you go up in height. This is driven from upper level winds. All of these will be in place by this weekend.
There is a marginal risk for severe weather for the northern ArkLaTex Sunday night. That means, on a scale of 1-5, a marginal risk is a 1. It is still low, but it is not zero. So, severe weather is possible. Everywhere else will see your typical thunderstorms that do not reach severe level. The threats we could be facing include damaging winds as the primary threat. Tornadoes and hail are on the low end of the spectrum, but not ruled out.
The exact timing of the storms is still in question. Basically when the cold front will push through and we have the heaviest rain. The entire First Alert Weather team is very confident that there will be rain after midnight. The question becomes, when will the weather be at its worst, and is there going to be any severe weather?
From our latest computer model guidance, the cold front will be pushing through after midnight Sunday. More of the rain will arrive by Monday morning. The severe weather will be possible from around midnight to 6:00 am Monday morning. Even after then, a few storms could be strong, and there will be a lot of heavy rainfall.
By sunrise on Monday, there will likely be a heavy line of showers and storms moving through the ArkLaTex. This is likely directly associated with the cold front itself. So, the storms overnight will be out ahead of the front. On your morning commute on Monday, the roads will likely be wet and the winds will be strong. So, I would allow extra time in the morning.
As the cold front and storms get closer, be sure to download our KSLA First Alert Weather App. From there, you can track the storms and get alerts whenever severe weather strikes. From the app, you can also view videos of upcoming weather events. In the case your electricity goes out, you can still watch any newscast live from the app.
Be sure to follow the entire KSLA weather team on Facebook and Twitter for more updates. We will be sure to keep you up to date with any storms that head our way.