SHREVEPORT, La. (KSLA) - A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has slowly become more organized over the past few days. Environmental conditions have now become conducive enough for development into our next tropical system. If it does become our next Tropical Storm it will be named Nestor. We should get a better idea of the organization of the storm when Hurricane Hunters fly into the system later on today.
Currently the National Hurricane Center has a 90% likelihood of development over the next 48 hours. Right now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting what is currently called Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 to develop into a tropical storm before making landfall in the Panhandle of Florida during the early morning hours on Saturday.
While model guidance has been agreement over the expected track of what will become Nestor, there is some disagreement in intensity. Some models do intensify the cyclone up to minimal hurricane status before landfall.
Due to the forecast track the National Hurricane Center has already issued Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida. Conditions will begin to deteriorate for these starting tomorrow afternoon.
The good news is that by the time the system makes landfall it will be picking up forward speed as it moves off to the north and east. Flooding is always a concern, but but to the expected forward speed major flooding concerns with system should stay low as about 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected.
The KSLA First Alert Weather will continue to give you the First Alert of the track of this potential tropical system. Here’s how you can stay up to date with the latest information: