First Alert: Gulf disturbance increases rain chances in the ArkLaTex

First Alert: Gulf disturbance increases rain chances in the ArkLaTex
As this disturbance moves northward, east Texas will see the greatest amounts (Source: KSLA.com)

An area of showers and storms is moving westward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near coastal Texas. The National Hurricane Center has given it only a 20% chance of developing into a tropical system. Although further development is unlikely, this system is expected to bring plenty of rain into southeast Texas and some of this could end up in the ArkLaTex.

Gulf disturbance chances of development
Gulf disturbance chances of development (Source: KSLA News 12)

We’re still too far to pitch exact timing and impact, but so far, models agree on rain arriving Thursday afternoon, but disagree on the timing and intensity of rain Friday. The GFS model brings the rain into east Texas and portions of northwest Louisiana Friday Morning, however, the European model, which usually performs better, brings the rain in Friday evening. It’s important as we are a few days out, to not pay attention to the exact timing in the photos.

The picture below is the GFS model’s prediction on rain arriving sometime Friday morning and moves the rain out Friday evening, but keep in mind it’s just model data and not exact science.

Friday morning rainfall chances according to GFS keeps most of it in east Texas.
Friday morning rainfall chances according to GFS keeps most of it in east Texas. (Source: Source:KSLA.com)

The picture directly below this caption depicts the Euro’s prediction of rain arriving Friday evening with the heavier amounts than the GFS. The Euro also keeps the heaviest rain in east Texas and not much rain elsewhere. As stated earlier, this is model data that is subject to change and not exact science.

Euro bring the heaviest rain in Friday evening.
Euro bring the heaviest rain in Friday evening. (Source: KSLA.com)

Rainfall amounts Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning range from less than a quarter of an inch to around 3 inches. Shreveport will likely see under and inch from this event as most of the rain will fall in east Texas. Nacogdoches, Texas could see close to three inches of rain and if the system continues moving north, areas near Mount Pleasant could rack up more inches than shown below.

As this disturbance moves northward, east Texas will see the greatest amounts
As this disturbance moves northward, east Texas will see the greatest amounts (Source: KSLA.com)

Keep in mind we’re still a couple of days away and there will be changes to timing and impact, but we’ll keep you up to date with the latest information we have on our KSLA First Alert Weather App, KSLA.com, and on-air.

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