First Alert: Tropical Depression appears likely near Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend

First Alert: Tropical Depression appears likely near Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend
Increasing chances of tropical development through the weekend (Source: KSLA News 12)

An unorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms near the southeastern Bahamas appears likely to develop into a Tropical Depression in the next few days as the system tracks to the west-northwest toward Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical wave moving into the southern Bahamas
Tropical wave moving into the southern Bahamas (Source: KSLA News 12)

Conditions aren’t favorable for any significant development right now, but are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has the chances for development at 50% in the next 48 hours and 70% within the next 5 days.

Increasing chances of tropical development through the weekend
Increasing chances of tropical development through the weekend (Source: KSLA News 12)

At this point there is a lot of uncertainty about how much development could occur and ultimately where this tropical system will track. The general consensus among several computer models is a track across south Florida, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and up through Alabama or Georgia. A few models do take it farther west into Mississippi or Louisiana.

Spaghetti model tracks for potential tropical system
Spaghetti model tracks for potential tropical system (Source: KSLA News 12)

Impacts for the ArkLaTex would appear to be minimal based on the latest data which suggests this potential tropical system will track well east of the area. A lot of variability is likely in the various computer models until a more organized system develops in the next few days. Regardless of the eventual track, any affects in our area would not be felt until sometime into the early to middle part of next week.

The KSLA First Alert Weather will continue to give you the First Alert of the track of this potential tropical system and any expected impacts across the ArkLaTex. Here’s how you can stay up to date with the latest information:

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