Friday will be our last SUN-sational day before rain, storms and the threat of severe weather return this weekend.
The timing of the showers and storms on Saturday has changed over the last 24 hours. The latest run of FutureTrack is showing the storms moving into E TX and SE OK late Saturday morning. These storms could continue to spread farther east into NW LA and SW AR Saturday afternoon. Additional showers and storms could develop Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially across NW LA and SW AR. The rain will likely wrap up from west to east across the Sunday morning.
The exact timing of the strongest storms is still a big question mark. The video above shows the hour-by-hour forecast of the RPM, which is just one of many forecast models the KSLA First Alert Weather Team uses to forecast the weather. The RPM brings in the showers and storms on Saturday quicker then most other forecast models. You can see the difference between the RPM and the HI-RES NAM in the image below. The HI-RES NAM doesn’t bring in the rain and storms until after 4 p.m. on Saturday. If you’re going to the air show on Saturday then you are rooting for the HI-RES NAM to be correct.
There will be the potential for severe weather on Saturday. Most of E TX, SE OK and SW AR and a small portion of NW LA are under an ENHANCED risk of severe weather Saturday - Saturday night. An ENHANCED risk of severe weather is 3 out of 5 on the severe weather scale, so there will be a medium threat of severe weather. The rest of NW LA and SW AR are under a SLIGHT risk of severe weather.
All modes of severe weather will be possible: damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes. Strong to damaging wind gusts will probably be the main threat. Widespread heavy rainfall and flooding is not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding.
With the potential of rain and storms coming in sooner on Saturday, there is the potential a shower or storm could impact the air show at Barksdale AFB and the Magnolia Blossom Festival and World Championship Steak Cook-off in the Magnolia, AR.
More showers and storms will continue to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning. The rain will be most widespread Sunday morning, especially across NW LA and SW AR. The rain will likely move out of the area by Sunday afternoon. Expect a clearing sky throughout the day on Sunday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
An unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week. More showers and storms will be possible through midweek. There could be the potential for severe weather on Tuesday. The northern half of the ArkLaTex is already highlighted in Tuesday’s severe weather outlook. It’s way too early to know the exact impacts and timing of the strongest storms next week.
By the end of next week, a summer-like weather pattern will develop, which means less rain and storms and more sunshine and heat. Highs by the end of next week and through Memorial Day weekend will near above 90 degrees.
The KSLA First Alert Weather Team is your First Alert on the potential of severe weather impacting your weekend. Here’s how you can stay up to date with the latest forecast: