FIRST ALERT: Enhanced risk of severe weather Saturday - Saturday night

FIRST ALERT: Enhanced risk of severe weather Saturday - Saturday night
Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook (Source: KSLA News 12)

This stretch of SUN-sational weather will come to end this weekend. Rain, storms and the threat of severe weather will return this weekend and could continue into next week.

Rain Chances
Rain Chances (Source: KSLA News 12)

Our next storm system will impact the ArkLaTex on Saturday. Rain and storms will develop just west of the ArkLaTex Saturday afternoon. These storms will track east and start to impact E TX and SE OK late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Rain and storms will increase from west to east across the area late Saturday into Saturday night. Rain and a few storms could linger into Sunday morning. The rain will wrap up from west to east across the area Sunday afternoon. Here are a few snap shots of FutureTrack Saturday through Sunday.

FutureTrack Saturday 4PM
FutureTrack Saturday 4PM (Source: KSLA News 12)
FutureTrack Sunday 12AM
FutureTrack Sunday 12AM (Source: KSLA News 12)
FutureTrack Sunday 8AM
FutureTrack Sunday 8AM (Source: KSLA News 12)
FutureTrack Sunday 4PM
FutureTrack Sunday 4PM (Source: KSLA News 12)

The threat of severe weather Saturday into Saturday night has increased. There is now an ENHANCED risk of severe weather for most of E TX and a small portion of NW LA, SW AR and SE OK. An ENHANCED risk of severe weather is 3 out of 5 on the severe weather scale, so there is a medium threat of severe weather. This is the area where the threat of severe weather will be the greatest on Saturday. The rest of the area not under an ENHANCED risk is under a SLIGHT risk of severe weather. Strong to severe storms will be possible across the entire area late Saturday into Saturday night. With the loss of day time heating and exiting storm system to our north, the storms should weaken as they move across the area Saturday night.

Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook
Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook (Source: KSLA News 12)

All modes of severe weather will be possible late Saturday into Saturday night. If a line of storms develops, the main threat will likely be strong to damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat looks low. The tornado threat will likely be the highest with in any storms that develop ahead of the main line of storms. Large hail will also be possible with the strongest storms.

First Alert Threat Tracker
First Alert Threat Tracker (Source: KSLA News 12)

The threat of widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding looks low. Widespread rainfall totals this weekend will likely range from 0.5-1.5″ of rain. The heaviest rain will likely fall across the I-30 corridor and points to the north. This is where both the European and American (GFS) forecast models show the highest rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals EURO
Rainfall Totals EURO (Source: KSLA News 12)
FutureTrack Rainfall GFS
FutureTrack Rainfall GFS (Source: KSLA News 12)

The latest forecast guidance suggest the rain and storms could move in a little earlier than what previously thought. However, most of Saturday still looks dry. Right now, it still looks like rain and storms will not have a big impact the Defenders of Liberty Air & Space Show at Barksdale AFB or the Magnolia Blossom Festival and World Championship Steak Cook-off in Magnolia, AR on Saturday.

Air Show Forecast
Air Show Forecast (Source: KSLA News 12)
Magnolia Blossom Festival Forecast
Magnolia Blossom Festival Forecast (Source: KSLA News 12)

More showers and storms will continue into next week as well. There could be the potential for more severe weather too. There northern half of the ArkLaTex is already highlighted on Saturday’s severe weather outlook.

Tuesday's Severe Weather Outlook
Tuesday's Severe Weather Outlook (Source: KSLA News 12)

By the middle of next week, it looks like a more typical summer like weather pattern will develop. This means more heat and sunshine and less rain. This weather pattern could continue into Memorial Day weekend.

The KSLA First Alert Weather Team is your First Alert on the potential for severe weather impacting your weekend. Here’s how you can stay up to date with the latest forecast:

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