The next day we’re watching closely for the potential of strong to severe storms is Wednesday.
On Wednesday, a large line of showers and storms will develop along and ahead of cold front/dryline. This line of showers and storms will move from west to east across the area late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Strong storms will be possible during this time.
On Wednesday, most of the area will be under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather. A MARGINAL risk of severe weather is 1 out of 5 on the severe spectrum. Widespread severe weather is not expected. However, isolated strong to severe will be possible on Wednesday.
With a line of strong to severe storms expected, the main threat will likely be strong to damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat on Wednesday looks low, but not zero. A quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out within the line of showers and storms. Right now, the hail threat looks very low.
Widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding looks unlikely at this time as well. However, locally heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in low lying and flooding prone areas. The latest run of FutureTrack shows the heaviest rain falling across NW LA. This is where a few places could see between 2-3″ of rain and where the flooding threat could be greatest. Widespread rainfall totals will likely between 0.5-1.5″.
The latest run of FutureTrack shows the line of storms approaching E TX and SE OK after 9 a.m. Wednesday morning.
By 4 p.m. Wednesday afternoon, this line of storms will likely be pushing through NW LA and SW AR and exiting E TX and SE OK.
The latest run of FutureTrack has the line of showers and storms clearing the ArkLaTex shortly after 8 p.m. Wednesday.
This is not a clear cut severe weather scenario. Not all the ingredients will be there for severe weather. One limiting factor will be the amount of instability, or fuel, in the atmosphere. Right now, FutureTrack is hinting that the amount of storm energy available in the atmosphere as this line moves through will be very limited. The latest run of FutureTrack doesn’t show much storm energy across the area at 4 p.m. on Wednesday.
Depending on how fast the front clears the ArkLaTex, a few showers or a little light rain could linger into Thursday. By the end of the work week, we’re finally going to get a chance to dry things out. We should be dry Friday through St. Patrick’s Day weekend. In the extended forecast, drier than normal conditions are expected through the middle of next week.
The rest of the work week looks mostly sunny, dry and cooler. Highs Friday through Sunday will only be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Right now, it looks like freezing temperatures will be possible north of I-30 Saturday night into Sunday.
The KSLA First Alert Weather Team will continue to be your First Alert on the potential for strong storms on Wednesday. Here’s how you can always get the very latest updates: