Confidence continues that a heavy event will unfold this week. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has already been issued for the entire area. This watch will be in effect Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2"-4" are expected across the watch area. Some places could see 3"-6"+. The main concern this week will be excessive rainfall and flooding. There could be widespread flooding where the heaviest rain and storms train. Even though heavy rain and flooding will be the main concern, a few strong to severe storms will be possible late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Even though most of us will stay dry throughout the day on Tuesday, widespread showers and storms will start to move in late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Places along and north of I-30 will have the best rain chances Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. A few storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible.
By Wednesday morning, the rain and thunderstorm activity will be more widespread. FutureTrack shows most of the wet weather will still be concentrated around the I-30 corridor. This is where there will mostly likely be delays for the morning commute. Localized flooding will be possible, especially in flood prone areas.
The rain and thunderstorms will slowly drop southward throughout the day on Wednesday. On Wednesday, Shreveport-Bossier's rain chances will really start to ramp up.
By Thursday morning, the heaviest rain will be along and south of the I-20 corridor. Flooding will be possible where the heaviest rain falls.
The heaviest rain will likely move out of the area late Thursday through Thursday night.
The two main concerns will be the potential of excessive heavy rainfall and flooding. Flash flooding will even be possible, which is why a FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued.
Both the American and EURO models are show the heaviest axis of rain falling along or south of the I-30 corridor, which is the area that will have the greatest flash flood threat.
With several inches of rain falling late Tuesday through Friday, flooding and flash flooding will be possible. This much rain will also cause our rivers, lakes, bayous and waterways to rise. Keep in mind, the water runoff may not cause our rivers to really rise until the weekend or the first week of April.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
Even though excessive heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main concerns, strong to severe storms will also be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
Most of east Texas and parts of southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana are under a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather on Tuesday. The area shaded in green will be under a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) of severe weather. Widespread or significant severe weather is not expected on Tuesday. However, a few strong storms capable of large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible, especially in the Slight Risk or yellow shaded area.
On Wednesday, the threat of severe weather will shift to the southeast. Most of northwest Louisiana and east Texas south of I-20 will be under a Slight Risk. A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible.
The tornado threat looks very low.
The StormTracker 12 Weather team makes it easy for you to stay up to date with the latest forecast: