FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY: Severe weather outbreak likely Saturday

FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY: Severe weather outbreak likely Saturday
'Moderate' risk of severe for portions of the ArkLaTex on Saturday

Saturday has been declared a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY due to the potential for a significant weather event. It looks like all the ingredients could come together for a severe weather outbreak across the area.

Even though it’s not likely, a few strong storms capable of hail and strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible late tonight through early Saturday morning. There is a MARGINAL risk of severe weather for most places along and north of I-20 tonight. A MARGINAL risk of severe weather is 1 out of 5 on our severe weather scale, so widespread or significant severe weather is not expected tonight.

Friday Night's Severe Weather Outlook
Friday Night's Severe Weather Outlook ((Source: KSLA News 12))

The threat of severe will greatly increase on Saturday. The concern of widespread severe weather impacting the ArkLaTex on Saturday continues to grow. There is a MODERATE risk of severe weather for most of NW LA and portions of E TX on Saturday. This is where the greatest threat of tornadoes will be on Saturday. Keep in mind, the rest of the ArkLaTex will still be under a risk of severe weather. Everyone will need stay weather aware on Saturday, especially from the I-20 corridor and points to the south.

'Moderate' risk of severe for portions of the ArkLaTex on Saturday
'Moderate' risk of severe for portions of the ArkLaTex on Saturday ((Source: KSLA News 12))

A MODERATE risk of severe weather is 4 out of 5 on our severe weather scale. It is rare to get a MODERATE risk of severe weather issued a day ahead of the severe weather event. This will be the greatest threat of severe weather we’ve been under so far this spring. Widespread severe weather will be likely across the MODERATE risk area.

Severe Weather Threat Levels
Severe Weather Threat Levels ((Source: KSLA News 12))

All modes of severe weather will be possible on Saturday: tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat will likely be threat greatest with any storms that develop ahead of the main line of storms. In the hatched area in the graphic below, there is a 10% or greater risk of an EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of any point. A medium to high risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail are also possible in the strongest storms.

All modes of severe weather are possible Saturday.
All modes of severe weather are possible Saturday. ((Source: KSLA News 12))

The strongest storms will also produce heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible. Widespread rainfall totals will likely be between 1-3″ of rain. Isolated rainfall totals of 4″ of rain will be possible.

FutureTrack Rainfall Forecast
FutureTrack Rainfall Forecast ((Source: KSLA News 12))

With widespread severe storms likely on Saturday now is the time to prepare for severe weather and know where you are going to go if severe weather impacts your area.

Severe Weather Checklist
Severe Weather Checklist ((Source: KSLA News 12))
Where to take shelter
Where to take shelter ((Source: KSLA News 12))

The KSLA First Alert Weather Team will continue to be your First Alert on the threat of severe weather impacting your Saturday. Make sure you remain weather aware on Saturday and constantly stay up to date with the latest forecast:

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