FIRST ALERT: Tracking a wet weekend and cool blast next week

FIRST ALERT: Tracking a wet weekend and cool blast next week
With the upper-level ridge shifting east, a trough will develop over Texas and a cold front will drop far enough south to increase our rain chances this weekend.

(KSLA) - If you have outdoor plans this weekend, now is the time to start thinking of a backup plan. Saturday and Sunday will feature some wet weather.

FIRST ALERT: Tracking a wet weekend and a cool blast next week

The upper-level ridge or area of high pressure that has been planted over the ArkLaTex for most of the week will finally move east of the area late this week. Luckily, it will take the bubble of really hot air with it, too.

An upper-level ridge or an area of high pressure has be anchored over the ArkLaTex most of the week. This area of high pressure will shift east late this week.
An upper-level ridge or an area of high pressure has be anchored over the ArkLaTex most of the week. This area of high pressure will shift east late this week. ((Source: KSLA News 12))

With the upper-level ridge shifting east, a trough will develop over Texas and a cold front will drop far enough south to increase our rain chances this weekend.

Plus, south winds will develop on the back side of the area of highs pressure and bring in moisture.

With the upper-level ridge shifting east, a trough will develop over Texas and a cold front will drop far enough south to increase our rain chances this weekend.
With the upper-level ridge shifting east, a trough will develop over Texas and a cold front will drop far enough south to increase our rain chances this weekend. ((Source: KSLA News 12))

There is not a good consensus between the models on how far south this front is going to drop. One model keeps it north of the area. Another model has it dropping as far south as I-30, while another model has it cutting the area in half.

Where the front sets up will have a big impact on our rain chances. Places along the front will probably have the best chance of rain this weekend.

Right now, it looks like the I-30 corridor and East Texas will have the best chance of rain this weekend.

Here’s snapshots of the latest run of FutureTrack:

Even though a few showers and storms will be possible across the entire area, the best chance of rain rain Saturday morning will be along and north of I-30.

FutureTrack at 8 a.m. on Saturday
FutureTrack at 8 a.m. on Saturday ((Source: KSLA News 12))

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible Saturday. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks very low. However, a stronger storm can’t be ruled out. Heavy rain will likely be the main concern, though. There could be a decrease in the rain activity Saturday evening into Saturday night.

FutureTrack at 4 p.m. on Saturday
FutureTrack at 4 p.m. on Saturday ((Source: KSLA News 12))

Most areas will wake up to a heavy dose of clouds. Areas or light rain or a few showers will be possible.

FutureTrack at 8 a.m. Sunday
FutureTrack at 8 a.m. Sunday ((Source: KSLA News 12))

More scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible Sunday afternoon. The latest run of FutureTrack shows most of the rain activity will be along and south of I-20. However, the showers and storms could develop a little further north.

FutureTrack at 4 p.m. Sunday
FutureTrack at 4 p.m. Sunday ((Source: KSLA News 12))

The heaviest rain will likely fall along and north of I-30 this weekend, which is what the latest run of FutureTrack is showing.

FutureTrack Weekend Rainfall Totals
FutureTrack Weekend Rainfall Totals ((Source: KSLA News 12))

Keep in mind, this weekend won’t be complete washout. It’s not going to be raining everywhere all day long.

Even though this front will not blast through the ArkLaTex this weekend, temperatures will be cooler. Most places will only top out in the 80s. A few places could struggle to hit 80 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. The average high for this time of year is 87 degrees. The clouds and rain likely keep our temperatures down.

FutureTrack Temperatures 4 p.m. Saturday
FutureTrack Temperatures 4 p.m. Saturday ((Source: KSLA News 12))

Saturday is the first day of fall and looks like it could feel like it in many spots.

FutureTrack Temperatures at 4 p.m. Sunday
FutureTrack Temperatures at 4 p.m. Sunday ((Source: KSLA News 12))

Decent rain chances will linger throughout most of next week too. However, the cold front that will arrive mid to late next week looks like it’s going to blast through the ArkLaTex and give us our first taste of fall. Highs could be near 80 degrees and lows could be in the 60s.

Below average temperatures are looking more likely for the end of the month and the beginning of September.

Temperatures Outlook for the end of September through the beginning of October
Temperatures Outlook for the end of September through the beginning of October ((Source: KSLA News 12))

The First Alert Weather Team will continue to be your First Alert on the potential for a rainy weekend and our first big cool down next week.

Here’s how you can always get the latest forecast information:

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